2nd could mean pole position

I have just had a quick read of another member of the vast right wing blogging conspiracy - Gordon at NZPundit. He has a fairly dire outlook for The Nats in the upcoming Election:

Election 05 - State of Play
On any fair assessment it would appear that the centre-right is heading for defeat on September 17th (insert the usual disclaimers). Present polling would indicate that the total centre-right vote hasn't shifted since the last election. There is still a five to six point margin of voters more comfortable with the centre-left than the centre-right and I don't expect that to change, even with the release of the competing tax policies. If I'm wrong and National manage to at least draw level in the next polls, I'll hang up my punditry hat (at least for this election).

There are two problems. Firstly the failure of political management to shift centre voters from Labour to National. Secondly, and I believe more importantly, the failure to articulate a credible alternate vision to shift the political centre rightwards.

National's political management in this campaign has been patchy. No matter how much we on the right would like to spin it they have been constantly bested by Labour in timing, execution and delivery. Most of the less important failures (debates, racing cars, policy bungles and suchlike) can be sheeted home to the unexpectedly poor performance of Brash, but in the big stuff of policy delivery they've been made to look like amateurs by a Labour machine astonishing in its ruthlessness.

I would have to say that, from what I have read, it is hard to disagree with his analysis. Particularly the last line - I have always maintained that one of my major frustrations is that Labour 'do politics' far better than anybody else. Look at the policy reversals this year - if that doesn't point to a stay retain power at all cost - what does?

All I would add is that this may not be a bad election to lose. On current numbers, even if Labour were to hold 41% (they won't - more likely 37% odd) - they would still need Peter's. Two words, sod that. Or for the Nats - been there, sod that.

If the Nats get anywhere close to 35% - that should be enough for a decent research unit, some decent airtime in the main stream media, and to be well positioned to take over when a Labour / NZ First / Greens coalition falls over.

A quasi realistic / optimistic prediction - we shall see!