"Bugger the polls!" (J Bolger 1996)

I have always held the belief that political polls should be banned in the two weeks prior to an Election, I used to believe that the self fulfilling prophecy factor was too high.

I also have questions about polls in general. The one question never asked, and certainly never reported, is; ‘are you at home around 6.30pm on a week night and happy to answer questions about utter bollocks, before you twig to the fact that this is a political poll?’ You can check whatever you like about demographics of age and sex etc – but this is a self selecting sample of dubious value to my mind.

But the polls of late have been mad! 10 point swings both ways and just 10 days or so from voting day! If the polls have had any effects whatsoever on the undecided’s – I think that would be to make them floating undecided’s!

From today’s Herald:

The Labour Party has swept ahead of National in a new poll that also has the Greens as the third largest party in Parliament.

A 3 News TNS poll has Labour up six points to 45 per cent support -- nine points ahead of National which has slipped five points to 36 per cent.

Volatility in the polls is showing through as this poll contrasts with a One News-Colmar Brunton poll published three days ago that gave National an eight-point lead over Labour.

Tonight's poll also sees New Zealand First losing a point to sit on 5 per cent support with the Green Party gaining a point to capture 7 per cent of the vote.

What can we take from this? The answer is – sod all – apart from the fact that this Election will be the most contentious, acrimonious and remembered for a long time.

And because this Election is basically a personality free zone (the only personality – Winnie – could be ‘gone by scotch time’!), it has become a purely ideological and philosophical choice. That is a good thing, but as the polls show that there are a great many people that really don’t know where they stand and can be brought with a few last ditch promises. This is not such a good thing.